Market Analysis

Commentary

We saw a big up day on Thursday, which was sustained on Friday, so that’s good news for the bulls.

The bad news for the bulls is the three bold resistance levels we have sitting above us right now.

We are unsure whether to be bullish above 77.86, or remain neutral at current levels until our trio of trouble is seen off.

Waiting for resolution.

Commentary

Our turning bear on the back of Wednesday’s selling blew up in our faces. The market rallied strongly, took out trend resistance, and kept going, up to a high of 79.42.

We closed strongly as well, so now sit at the top of the recent range. Still a “sell”?

Probably, yes. If you saw my appearance on CNBC yesterday morning you’ll note that we’re happily referencing the Bollinger Bands for a number of markets that are ranging now, and this is one of those that I highlighted. The top Bollinger Band is above 80 bucks today…

Commentary

We had 77.85-90 at R12 in bold yesterday, and the bulls got us through here. The problem they had was the bunch of bold levels we had with a “79” handle, but we didn’t find out about these because just in front of these (yesterday’s R4) was 78.55, and this is where we fell over.

We subsequently sold off to 76.20, and we closed near the bottom end of the day’s range, so we appear to have reinforced the credentials of the downtrend line on our chart, enough to prompt us to adjust our SkewBar to a mostly red affair, reflecting our thinking that the market is at the top end of it’s current range and is now due to head lower.

Commentary

We sold off to 76.00 yesterday, then rallied as US trade kicked into life.

It was a decent rally, and a sustained rally. We got up to 77.90 and ended the session at 77.58.

I have posted the “Sep” chart today as opposed to the continuation chart. This has a gently sloping downtrend line on it, that sits at 77.85 today. If this line is to hold as resistance we need to start seeing some selling very quickly!